There is a famous line in Rounders where Matt Damon says, "Why do you still call it Luck, I told you it's not luck! Why do you think the same five guys make it to the final table of the World Series of Poker EVERY YEAR? What, are they the luckiest guys in Las Vegas?"
Now I know you think you know where I am going with this: That luck doesn't exist and its all outlook and blah blah blah…nope, completely the opposite. I think Damon had it wrong here. I think Luck does exist and that yes, some people are just really lucky. And then according the laws set forth in the movie Unbreakable, there are people on the other side of the spectrum that are just unlucky.
So where do you fall? I know where I fall; I am one of the unluckiest people on the planet. But I qualify that to only when it pertains to games of chance. Actually when I look at just my life and ignore card games and casinos and drawings and any of that, I would say I am one of the luckiest people on earth. I have a great wife, great kids, a great job, a great family…but screw all that I just want to win at poker!
Also, once poker blew up did we see the same five guys at the final table anymore? Of course not, they are vastly different every year. Because no matter how much skill you can have at the game of poker, it still can always be outdone by luck. Now I know there are tons of books out there on how to beat the odds and how to read people and that its more about the betting than the cards but it still never comes down to 100%, and usually it doesn't even approach 70%.
My mom talks about one of her friends that always seems to have this cloud of negativity around her. And she feels that this is all mostly due to her own mindset and not circumstances. And not only that, she believes that since she is in that mindset that she brings more of it on. I hope that is not how it works, because I am thoroughly convinced that I am not lucky, so by her logic I will continue to get more and more unlucky, MAN!
I mean, when things tend to fall apart all the time due to forces not under your control; it is easy to get down. It's just more visible at games of chance. Plus, I have gone to the casino as optimistic as a devout Christian in the rapture and still lost every coin flip. Sure a negative mindset can make the unlucky events seem worse, but it still doesn't change the odds. If I am one card from winning and they have a 40% chance to draw to beat me, I guarantee I lose that every time. EVERY TIME!
There is the other theory that we only remember the losses, so your memory points you to thinking your unlucky when the odds are actually quite accurate. I can't really refute that. No one really can without recorded tests. And even then stupid optimists would just say, "Well if they had just made the test longer it would have bared the odds out."
My theory is that it is all about balance. You know, Karma and all that. It's all bullshit, but at least it keeps me happy about it. See, I have such a great life outside of games of chance that whenever chance has, well, a 'chance' to screw me, it jumps on it. So the next time you play cards with me and I win, just know how much harder it was for me to win than it was for your lucky ass. Cause at the heart of this thing is really just the fact that everyone thinks everyone else is luckier than them.